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Demand forecasting in pharmaceutical supply chains: A case study

April 30, 2019

Demand forecasting plays a critical role in logistics and supply chain management. In the paper, state-of-art methods and key challenges in demand forecasting for the pharmaceutical industry are discussed. An integrated procedure for in-market product demand forecasting and purchase order generation in the pharmaceutical supply chain is described. A case study for supply of pharmaceutical products from a wholesaler to a distribution company located in an emerging market is presented. Alternative forecasting scenarios for thebaseline demand calculations using the SMA model, multiple linear regressions and symbolic regression with genetic programming are experimentally investigated, and their practical implicationsare discussed.

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HMR is a Contract Research Organisation (CRO). We specialise in and can provide a full service for phase 1 and early phase 2 studies. Our premises are spacious (5995 m²) and have 145 beds, a sleep unit for polysomnography, facilities for volunteers, laboratories, a pharmacy, including an aseptic unit and radiopharmacy, and offices. We have over 250 staff – 10 physicians, 35 nurses or nurse graduates, and over 200 graduates or PhD. We have done over 850 studies since 1993. HMR is one of the largest early-phase CROs in Europe.

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